Suddenly the Republican field in the 2012 presidential election, and indeed the overall race, is starting to take shape.

With all due respect to Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich (and assuming, as I do, that Sarah Palin will not run), right now there seem to be two, or possibly three, serious contenders for the GOP nomination - Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and (maybe) Michele Bachmann. Mr. Paul, for example, has a very dedicated following, as demonstrated by his second place finish in the Ames, Iowa straw poll last weekend. However, Mr. Paul’s extreme libertarian views, particularly on foreign policy issues, are unlikely to resonate with rank and file Republican primary voters.

Mr. Romney was regarded as the frontrunner until this week. He certainly has a creditable record as both a businessman and governor of Massachusetts as well as a leading role in the Salt Lake City winter Olympics. So far this year, Mr. Romney, who looks like a President, has waged a solid, error-free campaign that will appeal to more moderate Republicans impressed by his executive experience, both in the public and private sector. It is possible that primary and general election voters may find a business background particularly attractive this year.

The negatives? Mr. Romney ran a lackluster campaign in 2008, has changed his position on a number of issues over the years and sponsored a health care plan in Massachusetts similar to the plan advocated by President Obama that most Republicans detest. Something that could be a negative with some voters, but should not be, is Mr. Romney’s Mormon faith.

The new kid on the block, of course, is Rick Perry, who has been governor of Texas for the last ten years, and who just got into the race in the last few days. Mr. Perry’s strong suit is the relatively good economy in Texas, which Mr. Perry’s supporters attribute to the business- friendly policies promoted by the governor that stress low taxes and a light regulatory burden.

Mr. Perry’s negatives include an inevitable comparison with another former Texas governor, George W. Bush, who remains unpopular with many voters. It also remains to be seen how Mr. Perry’s somewhat brash persona, and his public professions of religious faith, will play with suburban voters outside the South. Also, liberal politicians and economists will dispute that Mr. Perry’s policies were much related to the economic success in Texas.

And then there is Michele Bachmann, winner of the Ames straw poll. Ms. Bachmann, is an articulate spokesman for the very conservative wing of the GOP. Her adopting numerous foster children also speaks well of her and her husband.

Ms. Bachmann has a number of drawbacks, however, which may put her out of serious contention for the nomination. Her political and social views may be viewed by some Republicans as making her unelectable. She has no executive experience, having only served in the House.

And what about President Obama? He is clearly in a rough patch following the debt limit controversy, with approval ratings mostly in the low to mid-40’s. Mr. Obama is trying to regain his footing with a campaign style bus tour through crucial Midwestern states. Indeed, his tour may be modeled on another journey by a Democrat down in the polls — Harry Truman’s whistle stop campaign in 1948 in which he railed against the “do nothing” Republican Congress. Mr. Obama’s reelection is certainly in jeopardy, but as the nation found out when Mr. Truman won his race against heavy odds, there are no sure things in politics.