The View From Here . . .
One rather refreshing difference between this year and 2007, the last year preceding a presidential election, is that potential candidates are waiting a bit longer to jump into the fray. This may presage a somewhat shorter 2012 presidential campaign, which surely is a good thing.
In the last presidential election cycle, Democrats, fresh off a big victory in the 2006 Congressional elections, were very eager to begin the campaign. Hillary Clinton, at the time the presumed leading candidate for the presidential nomination, announced her campaign on her website on January 20, 2007, while Barack Obama made a more traditional announcement in Springfield, Illinois on February 10. On the Republican side, the frontrunner in the polls at the time (believe it or not), Rudy Giuliani, made it clear that he was running in mid-February on the Larry King show, while the eventual nominee, John McCain, told David Letterman he was running on March 1, although his formal announcement did not come until April 25.
Right now, none of the potential Republican candidates seem to be in a particular hurry to announce. (A contested race for the Democratic nomination seems unlikely.) Mitt Romney told supporters in November that people are “exhausted” from the 2010 midterm campaign and “not anxious” to begin right away with the next campaign and no announcement is expected until the spring. Other potential candidates like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels are attempting to get themselves better known among potential GOP supporters, frequently by appearing at state party Lincoln Day dinners and similar events. Of course, Sarah Palin has no name recognition problem whatsoever and could announce her candidacy (if one is to be) at any point in the calendar she chooses.
Meanwhile, the 2012 political calendar has been moved back, if only slightly. Whereas the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries were held on January 3 and January 8, 2008, they are now scheduled for January 16 and 24, 2012, respectively, at least keeping the political battles out of the holiday season. Right now, the first scheduled presidential debate is scheduled for May 5 in Greeneville, South Carolina and another one in the spring at the Reagan library in California. The first Democratic debate in the last cycle was on April 26, 2007. It remains to be seen if the Spring 2011 debates will attract many significant candidates.
I would prefer an even shorter calendar, with debates starting in the late fall and a series of four regional primaries from say, March to June, 2012. Still, even the somewhat later start represents an improvement.
Politics does need to have some “off season”, where the major focus is governing, rather that the immediate effect of every statement and vote on the next election. While some of the votes in Congress will be symbolic (for example, the vote by House Republicans to repeal the health care bill), other decisions facing President Obama and the new Congress will require a degree of working together and not merely posturing.
A case in point is the upcoming fight over extension of the debt ceiling. Republicans must resist the temptation to refuse to raise the limit since such a refusal could plunge the country and world into a debt crisis. Democrats must put real spending reduction on the table rather than placing even greater burdens on our children. A final resolution of these issues surely will not be helped by the grandstanding that is inherent in a presidential campaign. So, at least in general, the more the 2012 campaign is confined to 2012, the better.









