Between the 2009 elections and the passage of the health bill in the House of Representatives, it has been an eventful week in politics.

November 3 was clearly the best election night for Republicans in five years. Nationally, the GOP won big victories in governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, both states carried by President Obama in 2008. The national trend toward Republicans was particularly marked in suburban areas. In New York state, for example, the GOP easily ousted the Westchester county executive. And, of course, in Nassau County, the Republicans took control of the county legislature and locked the Democratic county executive in a too close to call race.

The one notable election the Republicans lost, the upstate Congressional race, should provide some useful lessons for the party going forward. Nominating a candidate who is too liberal for the party base is poor strategy for winning. On the other hand, candidates perceived as conservative ideologues will have a difficult time being elected in many districts, especially if they are not thoroughly versed in local issues.

In the wake of the substantial Republican gains in the election, House speaker Nancy Pelosi decided to rush the health reform bill to a Saturday night vote. One suspects that she did not want to recess the House and make members of her party face more wrath about health care from constituents (particularly newly emboldened Republicans) in their district. After the Democratic leadership had to permit a successful vote on an anti-abortion amendment, the health bill passed on a 220-215 vote, with 39 Democrats voting against and one Republican voting for. Presumably, the Democratic leadership handed out some “passes” to vote no to some members in difficult districts, but the narrow margin reflected how contentious the legislation has become. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, likely voters oppose the bill by a 52-45 percent margin.

Now it is on to the Senate. Unless Democratic leader Harry Reid attempts to use the extremely controversial budget reconciliation process, the bill will require 60 votes, which is exactly the number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents in the chamber. One of those independents, Senator Joseph Lieberman, has threatened to block a final vote on the bill if it contains a public option (as does the House bill). As National Review analyst Robert Costa points out, there are a number of obstacles in the Senate, in addition to the lack of votes for the public option. One obstacle is time, which does not seem to be on the bill’s side, especially as provisions of the bill are fully debated. Also, Republicans are likely to propose numerous amendments that will make their opponents confront every aspect of the legislation. In addition, the abortion controversy will reappear and divide Senate supporters of health reform.

Still, even in spite of adverse election results last Tuesday, lack of strong public support and a widespread belief that the governmental priority should be the struggling economy rather healthcare, there is every likelihood that proponents of the legislation will soldier on. Democrats know that they are unlikely to hold Congressional majorities of the magnitude they now enjoy, and they believe that this is the opportunity of at least a generation. They also fear the effect on the party base if, like in 1994, they end the session without achieving their top domestic priority. The bill may have to be amended very drastically on many key issues and generally watered down, but many Democrats will not rest until they get health care reform on President Obama’s desk.