The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

In about 14 months, in November 2010, Americans will have their first official opportunity to express their opinions of the administration of Barack Obama. In light of President Obama’s sweeping agenda, this figures to be an unusually significant and contentious off-year election.

36 senators and all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be up for election. Because the Democrats enjoy a pretty comfortable margin in the Senate (currently a 59-40 advantage following Senator Kennedy’s death), much of the intrigue surrounds the House of Representatives, where the Democrats currently have a 256-178 margin, with one vacancy.

Off-year elections normally favor the party out of power and Republicans appear to have a few additional built-in advantages to gain House seats. According to political analyst Michael Barone, when President Bush won narrowly in 2004, he managed to carry 255 congressional districts. That means that over 75 current Democratic House incumbents represent potentially Republican-leaning areas. In contrast, analyst Larry Sabato reports that in President Obama’s sizable victory in 2008, he only managed to carry 34 districts that elected a Republican member of Congress. (The basic reason for this disparity is that Democrat support is more concentrated in Democratic leaning districts.) In a year where the wind is not likely to be at the Democrats’ back, Republicans should have ample pickup opportunities in districts around the country.

Other factors seem to favor the GOP in the House. The overall Republican brand is better received than in 2006 and 2008. In the most recent weekly Rasmussen Reports survey of likely voters, 44 percent of respondents say they would vote for the Republican candidates in their district, while 37 percent favored the Democrats. Just before election day last year, Democrats had a 47-41 advantage. As demonstrated by the many successful “tea party” protests, opponents of President Obama also have an intensity advantage. Rasmussen reports, for example, that far more likely voters strongly oppose Mr. Obama’s health plan than support it. And the demographic group most concerned with health care issues, the elderly, were the one age group carried decisively by John McCain in 2008.

As for the Senate, large Republican gains are not as likely. 18 of the 36 seats at stake are currently held by Republicans, including six open seats where the incumbent is not running for reelection; open seats (Democrats have two this cycle) are typically harder to defend. Republicans do have some good opportunities for pickups in a number of states (for example, Connecticut, Illinois, Nevada and Colorado), but coming close to winning the 11 seats they need for control seems like a tall order.

Nevertheless, even in the House, before Republicans dream of replacing Nancy Pelosi as speaker in January 2011 (that would take a gain of 40 seats), they must recognize that much can happen between now and the fall of next year. For example, we still do not know how much of Mr. Obama’s program will get through Congress and whether passage of his legislation, if it does happen, will prove popular. The economy is another unknown. The conventional wisdom is some recovery, but with unemployment as a lagging indicator. If things go considerably better or worse (for example, a significant resurgence of inflation) than expected, it will affect the outcome. And finally, we do not know how a significant foreign policy event would affect the results. Right now, the forecast looks fairly good for the GOP, especially in the House, but there is a long, long road ahead.