By Bob Morgan, Jr.

It is obviously a long, long way until 2012, but the surprise announcement of the resignation of Sarah Palin as governor of Alaska has roiled the contest to be the Republican nominee against President Obama.

In her short career on the national stage, Governor Palin certainly became a universally well known figure. An unexpected vice presidential choice of Senator John McCain in 2008, Ms. Palin energized the Republican base with a rousing convention speech. Indeed, largely on the strength of Ms. Palin's appeal, the McCain-Palin team moved out to a small lead in the polls in mid-September.

However, the rollout of Ms. Palin's candidacy was very flawed, and other issues hurt her run. Instead of concentrating her initial interviews with friendly questioners (for example, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, even a call-in to Rush Limbaugh's show), the campaign chose to submit its relatively inexperienced candidate to extreme hardball interviews by Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric. Not surprisingly, she fumbled some questions, helping emphasize her lack of experience, even though she had a good (if relatively brief) record in Alaska. In addition, the Palin team got involved in a silly controversy concerning the purchase by the campaign of an expensive wardrobe.

And the nomination of Ms. Palin did not look quite as prescient after the mid-September economic collapse, and many Republicans wondered if the party might have done better with an experienced businessperson like Mitt Romney as its vice presidential nominee. In the end, Ms. Palin was a mixed bag for the McCain ticket, with both pluses and minuses.

Ms. Palin's candidacy also evoked a considerable cultural response, which sometimes had an ugly side. Her identity as a hockey mom of five children (including a Down's Syndrome boy) , outdoorswoman, former beauty queen, devout Christian and devoted wife sometimes provoked a visceral reaction, especially after it was announced that her unmarried teenage daughter was pregnant. In addition to a general salacious attitude toward her candidacy in the media as a whole, the internet was awash with unfounded rumors about her family. Even recently, Ms. Palin's family was subjected to unnecessary ridicule on late night television.

But now Ms. Palin is stepping down from elective office in Alaska, while promising to remain active in public life. It is always difficult to predict political effects, but this decision likely will have a significant negative effect on her prospects for the presidential nomination in 2012, if indeed that is her goal. Leaving office in Alaska after less than one term emphasizes her relatively meager record. In addition, her departure after a furor over the treatment of her family, however unfair, raises the issue of having a thick enough skin. The youthful Ms. Palin may live to fight another day, but that day will probably be 2016 or later.

The most likely beneficiary of Ms. Palin's resignation is Mr. Romney. He was the first choice of many conservatives during the 2008 primary season and would likely inherit much of Ms. Palin's support among "values" voters. But other potential candidates may also lay claim to Palin supporters. Newt Gingrich, for example, could note that he, like Ms. Palin, is something of a maverick.

Sarah Palin may not end up being the GOP nominee in 2012, but she and her supporters may well cast a long shadow over the race.