The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

The tumult in Iraq provides challenges and opportunities for American foreign policy.

This is obviously a fast moving story, with numerous unknowns. No one in the West knows exactly whether President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in fact reelected handily, or whether the election was stolen, as alleged by supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the principal opposition candidate. Obviously, there are thousands of irate Iranians in the street who believe that the results were severely tainted by fraud, but we cannot be sure that they are correct.

And, of course, no one in the West or in Iran really knows if the opposition movement will gain or lose strength. The huge demonstrations in Tehran have already led Iran's religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameni. to call for the country's Guardian Council, comprised of leading clerics and judges, to investigate claims by supporters of Mr. Mousavi that the election was rigged. But the big question is whether the demonstrations will lead to major reforms, will simply peter out or be squelched, perhaps in a way very reminiscent of the way the Tiananmen Square protests were ended in China.

So far, the Obama Administration has tread very lightly concerning the Iranian situation. President Obama called for the continuation of a "tough, direct dialogue" with Iran, while stating an understanding that Iran would be looking into "irregularities in the voting". The State Department declared that it was "deeply troubled" unrest and concerned about the voting.

Is there more for the United States to do? The editors of the conservative magazine National Review urge more resolute rhetoric from the White House: "The supreme [Iranian] leader and his president have little choice except to pretend to strength. President Obama should call them on it, lending the opposition his rhetorical support. So far, he has given the impression that he wants the dictatorship to stabilize itself so he can get back to the work of appeasing it. The more Obama extends that hand of his, the likelier the regime is to try to crush its bones." On that note, Senator John McCain has been distinctly less circumspect than the President, calling the balloting a "corrupt, flawed, sham of an election" and urged U.S. policymakers to back anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrators in their battle against "an oppressive, repressive regime."

And beyond upping the rhetoric, of course, the United States could take further steps against Iran, including, for example, support for boycotts as well as covert support for opposition groups. Even before the Iran election, many ordinary Americans are convinced that President Obama is not a strong enough with Iran. In an Opinion Dynamics survey for Fox News, 66 percent of overall respondents say Obama has not been tough enough in dealing with Iran, including 57 percent of Democrats, 80 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of independent respondents.

On the other hand, Senator Richard Lugar, ranking Republican member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, strikes a reasonable note of caution. In a television interview, Senator Lugar points out that strong statements by United States officials could be seized upon by Iranian clergy in an effort to retain their power. He regards the election as "interesting, but not decisive."

This is a situation which will present an important early challenge to the Administration. The situation will be moving quickly and Mr. Obama's team will have to find the right mix of conciliatory talk with words and actions that befit the United States's role as a champion of democracy in a dangerous world.