The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

This week marks the completion of 100 days of the Barack Obama presidency. While the 100 day milestone is obviously an artificial one, it is so widely used (including by President Obama himself, who is scheduling a prime time news conference to mark the day), that it is probably worthwhile to play along with a few observations on how Mr. Obama is doing, and what the future might hold.

Mr. Obama's popularity with the American people is high, but not spectacular. While polls of all adults show higher numbers, the Rasmussen daily survey of likely voters paints a more realistic picture of Mr. Obama's standing among people who will be deciding his political fate. According to the Rasmussen numbers, Mr. Obama has the approval of 56 percent of likely voters and the disapproval of 43 percent. 36 percent of these respondents strongly approve of Mr. Obama's performance, while 31 percent disapprove. There is a sharp partisan divide here, with 64 percent of Democrats strongly approving and 54 percent of Republicans disapproving.

Still, even political opponents acknowledge Mr. Obama's political skill. Rich Lowry, editor of the Conservative National Review , observes that "eloquent and possessing a genius for striking a tone of sweet reason, Obama is a walking rebuke to George W. Bush. That alone would make it hard to fumble his 100 Days."

Certainly, Mr. Obama's legislative scoreboard results have been excellent. He was able to gain approval of the huge $787 billion appropriation bill measure as well the $410 billion omnibus appropriation bill, with Democrats holding firm in the face of unified Republican opposition. These victories were achieved even though the Obama fiscal plan is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to produce deficits of $9.3 trillion over the next ten years. On the negative side, Mr. Obama's "cap and trade" energy proposal appears to be in serious trouble.

Health care policy is likely to be the mst important legislative challenge for the Obama administration in the next few months. Mr. Obama's allies are likely to try for major health reforms in the senate using the budget reconciliation process, which would require 51 votes for passage, rather than the normal rules which require 60 votes to end debate and enact a measure. Budget reconciliation has been used for tax increases and decreases, but rarely for major economic legislation like the new health program and Republicans are likely to resist furiously any attempt to alter the rules. The Democrats' chances of prevailing under the normal rules may have gotten a bit easier this week with the defection of Senator Arlen Specter from the GOP, but it is far from clear that there are 60 votes in favor of any sweeping health proposal. This has every look of a huge fight, where public opinion on the underlying proposal may prove decisive.

Of course, it is still very early to forecast the success or failure of this administration. Apart from legislative developments, we do not know how long the country will remain mired in recession, whether the deficits will eventually produce inflation or even whether the worst is over for financial markets. We also do not know how Iraq and Afghanistan will eventually work out or there will be any new major foreign challenges. All we can reasonably foretell is that Mr. Obama is a vigorous and energetic leader with a broad vision of an expanded role for the government in economic life, a vision that will be vigorously opposed throughout his presidency.