The View From Here . . .
The proposed $819 billion stimulus bill passed by the House of Representatives last week, and now before the Senate, has profound real world consequences and rather desperately needs an overhaul.
If $819 billion sounds like a great deal of money, it is. In fact, the House package would spend beyond the total amount expended to date for the Iraq War. According to projections by Decisions Economics, Inc. published in the Wall Street Journal , if the bill is enacted, the United States the federal deficit would approximately double the highest peacetime level. The United States debt level as a fraction of gross domestic product would by far be the highest in recent history and would approximate World War II levels
In addition to its huge cost, there are significant problems with the House version of the stimulus Writing in Newsweek , economist Robert Samuelson notes Congressional Budget Office estimates that only 21 percent of the expended amounts would be expended in fiscal 2009 (through September 2009) with an additional 44 percent in fiscal 2010. That adds up to 65% and means that fully one third of the package will not be spent until the recession is likely over.
In addition, the stimulus package will effect broad societal change in the guise of recession relief. A huge portion of the bill, $125 billion, is aimed at public education, an area that is traditionally the domain of state and local governments. This vast increase in the federal role in education would obviously be a major change. Health benefits to unemployed workers would also be subsidized, another important (and basically not debated) milestone.
On a lesser level, the bill includes $335 million to combat sexually transmitted diseases and $50 million for the National Endowment of the Arts; neither expenditure has much to do with stimulating the economy. And, as a New York Times article this week details, the plan will expand broadband internet service to rural areas, despite fears that the plan may not be thought out. Of course, there are numerous state and local projects included, many of which can fairly be labeled as pork.
The House bill passed on a 244-188 vote, with every Republican opposed and 11 Democrats also voting against the measure, and it now moves to the Senate. While the Democrats' substantial majority in the Senate makes passage of something like the House bill a very likely outcome, the public is fairly skeptical. The most recent Rasmussen poll shows 42% support for the package, with 39% opposition. If Senate Republicans hold together, they can force significant changes in the legislation, or conceivably even defeat the measure by filibuster.
There has to be a better way than the House bill. The legislation is far too broad and creates far too high a deficit, with today's economic problems in effect being passed on to our children. A much more workable package would be much smaller, include more tax breaks (a payroll tax holiday and/or a tax credit for purchasing a house or a new car in the next 12 months might be considered) and far less spending. The spending measures that do emerge should be much more fast acting, like shovel ready construction projects and (as is already included) extended unemployment benefits.
President Obama inherited a difficult economy and government action to help stimulate the economy is appropriate. The bloated bill passed by the House, however, is not the right answer.









