The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

While much of the political focus has been on the beginning of the Obama Administration, there is no shortage of developments on the New York State front. As a disclaimer, the opinions expressed in this column are solely my own.

After much tumult, Governor David Paterson has announced the appointment of little-known upstate Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate. The announcement of Ms. Gillibrand as the choice followed weeks of speculation that Caroline Kennedy would be named. Indeed, Ms. Kennedy launched a sort of "campaign" around the state to land the job (the foray had mixed success), only to announce that she had decided to withdraw herself from consideration "for personal reasons."

Certainly the Senate nominee selection process was not Mr. Patterson's finest hour. It took the governor far too long to choose. There was no reason that the announcement had to await Ms. Clinton's Senate confirmation as Secretary of State; it could simply have been contingent on confirmation. The governor looked very indecisive about Caroline Kennedy, with the implication that he was being manipulated by other political figures in the state. Moreover, the appointment of Ms. Gillibrand created dissention within the party. Long Island Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy, whose husband was killed in the 1993 Long Island Rail Road massacre, was threatening to challenge Ms. Gillibrand in a primary over gun control issues.

The Gillibrand appointment may have created a ripple effect affecting a number of the statewide races in 2010, and mostly in ways not helpful to the Democratic Party.

Mr. Paterson himself is in a weakened position. (He also didn't help himself this week when he had to cancel a ski trip to Davos, Switzerland.) In a new Siena Poll he only leads Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical primary matchup and has only the same small lead against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in a general election contest. These results would certainly encourage both Mr. Cuomo, who has not indicated interest in the governorship, and Mr. Giuliani, who has been coy, to get into the race. An interesting sidelight here is that Mr. Paterson had the opportunity to appoint Mr. Cuomo as senator, and in effect send his main primary rival to Washington, but declined to do so.

As for Ms. Gillibrand, her election in 2010 is certainly not assured, even assuming that Ms. McCarthy does not follow through on her threat of a primary. The likely Republican nominee, Long Island Congressman Peter King, now in his eighth term, is well known in the heavily populated downstate region, and is generally regarded as a solid voice on national security issues.

Of course, the Democratic turmoil does not make a resurgence by the Republicans inevitable. The GOP has a significant voter registration deficit in the state and has been routed in recent statewide elections. Moreover, there could be division in Republican ranks over its gubernatorial candidate as former Congressman Rick Lazio, supported by Conservative Party leaders, is also exploring a candidacy. And the indictment of former state senator Joe Bruno, until recently the state's top Republican, does not add to the party's image.

Still, the tumult in the Democratic party does create an opening for Republicans in New York in 2010. Now that Democrats control all of the statewide offices, plus the legislature, plus both United Sates Senate seats, they in effect "own" the state's problems, including those in economically depressed upstate. It is certainly conceivable that voters will be interested in learning whether the Republicans can do any better.