The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

This is written on the morning after Governor Eliot Spitzer's bombshell announcement, with no resolution yet of the governor's future. While I can't say that I was an enthusiastic supporter of Mr. Spitzer, it is sad to see such a fall from grace of a talented man and sad to see his family have to be caught up in this mess.

In some way the suprise engendered by the revelations concerning Mr. Spitzer are a good segue to today's column, which relates to the many twists and turns, including many unexpected ones, that are likely ahead in the presidential race.

Even up to now, there have been some major surprises, including John McCain's ability to win the Republican nomination so easily and Barack Obama's surprising role as a narrow frontrunner for the Democratic nomination over the early favorite of the pundits, Hillary Clinton. But there are many other unexpected moments to come, as none of the three remaining candidates has anything like a clear path to victory.

In some ways Republicans appear to have the right candidate in Senator McCain, whose heroic story is certainly inspiring and whose record of independence is attractive to Democratic and independent voters. But there are many potential obstacles to McCain presidency.

Unfortunately for the GOP and its candidate, Mr. McCain, the fundamentals in the race do not favor the party on a number of levels. The current Republican president, George W. Bush, has an approval rating of around 32%, many financial experts think the economy is in, or heading toward, recession and the signature event of the Bush presidency, the Iraq war, remains fairly unpopular, even with significant improvements on the ground. And then there is the eight year itch. Voters typically turn out the party in power after two terms, as they have in four of the last five elections involving this situation.

But if Mr. McCain's path seems difficult, the same is surely true of Senator Hillary Clinton's. Her basic problem is that she is behind in the count of elected delegates and her only plausible path to the nomination involves overruling the elected delegates with those of the so-called superdelegates, basically senior party officials. Unless her rival, Senator Obama, were to join her ticket (which he claims he will not do), a Clinton nomination imposed on the party by veteran politicians would likely create deep resentment among Obama supporters and the distinct possibility of only a halfhearted effort in favor of the former First Lady in the fall.

Nor does the other significant contender, Senator Obama, have an easy road. While unquestionably likeable and personable, and an excellent orator, he would seem a great target for Mr. McCain in the fall. With less than one term in the United States Senate, he has very little federal experience and little demonstrated expertise in foreign policy. Certainly his pledge to meet with world dictators without preconditions will be sharply criticized and his plan for withdrawal from Iraq on a fixed timetable will be attacked as naive. If Hillary Clinton, whose own foreign party credentials are mostly derivative, could get considerable traction for her "3 a.m." television ad against Senator Obama, imagine how much success Mr. McCain will have.

As we saw in Mr. Spitzer's unfortunate situation this week, unanticipated situations can frequently arise in politics. And if ever there were a presidential race to expect the unexpected, this is surely it.