The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

This is written on the eve of the Florida primary, so it does not make much sense to write about the race for the Republican nomination, by all accounts a hotly fought contest which will likely last well beyond the February 5 Super Tuesday primaries.

However, there certainly is no shortage of other political developments to discuss.

The Democratic race has certainly heated up, but it still seems like Hillary Clinton's to lose. Her chief rival, Senator Barack Obama, scored an important and larger than expected win in South Carolina, but that victory may not be replicable in many states. Unfortunately for Mr. Obama, the rather nasty South Carolina primary produced a great deal of racial polarization in a state in which the majority of Democratic primary voters were African American. According to the exit polls polls, Mr. Obama garnered about 78% of the black vote, but just 24% of the white vote.

While Mr. Obama had previously demonstrated a great deal of interracial appeal in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will have to regain the ability to reach across racial lines to do well in big states. At present, Mrs. Clinton has double digit leads in the polls in a number of key states that will be holding primaries on Super Tuesday, including California, New York, Massachusetts and New Jersey. (Senator Obama leads in his home state, Illinois, and in Georgia.)

Perhaps the big name endorsements of Mr. Obama by party luminaries such as Ted Kennedy and John Kerry will help turn the tide, maybe the bare knuckles campaign techniques of Bill Clinton will backfire, or maybe Mr Obama will start to make inroads with Hispanic voters, a very important bloc in some of the big states. But for now, Mrs. Clinton, who has strong support of political organizations in many states, remains a very significant favorite for the nomination.

Meanwhile, President Bush, although very much a lame duck, showed considerable vitality in his State of the Union address this week. Mr. Bush, alternatively feisty and conciliatory, vowed to work with Democrats on the stimulus and other economic measures, but made it clear that he was not going to tolerate earmarks and other questionable use of federal expenditures. Of course, a bit of this resolve would have been appropriate when the Republicans were in control of Congress and pushing the Bridge to Nowhere and like projects, but that unfortunately is ancient history.

On the war in Iraq, the President made it clear that the stakes remain high. He pointed to the very significant progress that has been made in Iraq in the last year, both due to the surge of United States troops and what Mr. Bush labeled a surge of Iraq's own against extremists. Security has improved dramatically and al Qaeda appears to be on the run. But, as the President noted, "a failed Iraq would embolden extremists, strengthen Iran, and give terrorists a base from which to launch new attacks on our friends, our allies, and our homeland."

Right now, of course, Mr. Bush's job approval rating is mired in the thirties in most polls. But the verdict of history may well be considerably different, especially if there is a reasonably good outcome in Iraq. (Harry Truman, President during the difficult Korean War, had similar ratings to Mr. Bush in his last year of office.) While Democrats and Republicans are eagerly seeking to replace Mr. Bush, the President is working hard to remain relevant and to build his legacy.