The View From Here . . .

2008-12-12 / View From Here

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

Before the 2008 campaign fades into history, it might be useful to memorialize some of the reasons why John McCain lost the election.

No doubt the single biggest factor was the economy and in particular the fall financial meltdown. While the economy had been soft all year, until September it seemed that we were basically in a slow growth mode rather than an outright recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, while well off its alltime high, was generally hovering in the 11,000's. And on September 15, John McCain, buoyed by a considerable post-convention bounce, had a small lead in most polls and in the Intrade, the internet prediction market.

Then came the Lehman Brothers collapse, which hit the financial markets on September 15. Lehman was allowed to collapse, but it quickly became clear that many other major institutions were in deep trouble. A huge and controversial package was arranged to bail out financial institutions. By October 6, the Dow dropped below 10,000, where it has remained. Economic conditions worsened quickly during October, with continued weakness in the financial sector, rising unemployment and many layoffs.

Not surprisingly, Mr. McCain quickly lost his lead in the polls and in Intrade, and basically never recovered. As a Republican, he was blamed for the problems. In addition, he was not very good at articulating a coherent economic message (beyond opposition to earmarks and excessive federal spending) or of making the case that lax Democratic policies on housing had greatly contributed to the problems.

Mr. McCain's second biggest problem was that he was overall not as personable or articulate as Mr. Obama. Although Mr. McCain had a compelling life story and a far greater record of national service than did Mr. Obama, Mr. Obama was a compelling speaker with a seeming sense of vision. Mr. McCain's age, 72, probably did not help him.

A third major and underappreciated cause of Mr. McCain's defeat was that he was vastly outspent by Mr. Obama. Unlike Mr. Obama, Mr. McCain took public financing of his campaign and was thus was limited to the $84 million from the government. (Mr. McCain did receive some help from the Republican National Committee, but it was completely inadequate.) Mr. Obama was outspending Mr. McCain by three to one on television time in the final weeks of the presidential election and was able to widen the political map by putting many Republican states in play. In addition, Mr. Obama had a much better field operation.

A fourth reason was the general unpopularity of President Bush, which added to the mandate for "change."

Was Sarah Palin a reason for the loss? Ms. Palin probably added plusses and minuses. She was a dynamic figure who energized the Republican base, which had been rather tepid about Mr. McCain's candidacy. On the other hand, her candidacy weakened the argument against Mr. Obama that experience was crucial. Certainly the campaign did a poor job of rolling out her candidacy, scheduling earlier interviews with Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric rather than more sympathetic journalists.

Republicans will, of course, seek to draw lessons from this loss. In some ways the race was very uphill from the start and may well have been completely unwinnable once the economic collapse occurred. Nevertheless, nominating a candidate who better articulates bread and butter concerns of average voters would have helped (only late in the campaign did Mr. McCain discover Joe the Plumber). In addition, Republicans will have to upgrade their fundraising operations, both traditional and online, to keep pace with juggernaut operations like Mr. Obama's.

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