The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

This is the final column before the end of the 2008 campaign. Here are four general observations about this long, long political season.

1. While we are now thoroughly accustomed to the Obama vs. McCain race, it is well to remember that the nomination of neither candidate was inevitable. When the race began, it was generally believed that the likely Democratic nominee was Hillary Clinton, on the strength of her name recognition, her husband's political organization and her popularity among women voters. But she ran into a charismatic candidate in Barack Obama. Once Mrs. Clinton failed to knock out Mr. Obama on Super Tuesday, it became apparent that he had the appeal and the organization to win. After a closely fought struggle for the nomination, Mrs. Clinton finally conceded in early June.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the race seemed very wide open with Rudolph Giuliani perhaps enjoying a slight advantage. But for whatever reason (perhaps related to national suspicion of New Yorkers), Mr. Giuliani's campaign never caught fire, and his strategy of pinning his hopes on the Florida primary proved unsuccessful. John McCain, who had to reorganize his campaign drastically in 2007 amid severe financial woes, emerged as the consensus choice among Republicans in the early spring, despite his maverick image.

2. This campaign season will likely be the death knell of campaign financing, at least under the present system. Mr. McCain, a longtime champion of reform, took $84 million in public financing for the general election campaign, while Mr. Obama opted out of the system, content to raise large amounts on the internet as well as from more substantial donors. Even with help from the Republican National Committee, Mr. McCain was vastly outspent on advertising in key battleground states. I doubt any future major party nominee will take the public dollars.

3. There seemed to be an unusually strong level of media bias this year, something the public sensed as well. In a Rasmussen survey of likely voters in September, 69 percent said that reporters try to help their favored candidate to win. And, by a margin of 50 percent to 11 percent, the perception was that the favored candidate was Barack Obama. This perception seemed amply borne out by the media's general lack of interest in pursuing negative stories about Mr. Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, while giving intense coverage to issues involving Mr. McCain and Sarah Palin.

4. While Mr. McCain is not the more likely victor next Tuesday, he definitely has a chance. First, there is a distinct possibility that many opinion polls are considerably overstating the number of Democrats who will actually vote. While exit polls show that the same number of Democrats and Republicans voted in 2004, and the Democratic edge was 3% in 2006, a heavily Democratic year, opinion polls (both national and state) are frequently assuming huge increases this year in Democratic turnout beyond the 2006 level. It very much remains to be seen whether these increases will materialize. Second, if (big if) there is a little bit of stability in the markets in the days leading up to the election, there could well be a focus by "soft' or undecided voters on issues beside the economy - who is the better leader, who will make the more plausible commander in chief. These issues likely favor Mr. McCain.

I'd rather be in Mr. Obama's shoes than Mr. McCain's, but this election is anything but over.