The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

If the election were held this week, Senator Barack Obama would likely be elected President. Based on national polls on the day this is written (immediately before the second debate), the Illinois senator is leading by between 2 and 8 points in nine surveys collected on the Real Clear Politics website, and has moved into narrow leads in three pretty much must-win states for Senator John McCain - Ohio, Florida and Virginia.

Of course, however, there is still some time between now and Election Day on November 4 and Mr. McCain still has a chance to gain ground and pull out a win. But his campaign must sharpen its message.

In some ways, Mr. McCain is lucky to be as close as he is, with the country mired in very bad economic news. The anxiety level seems high, indeed inordinately high. In a CNN poll released this week, 21% believed that a depression was very likely and 38% somewhat likely even when the respondents were told that a depression means 25% unemployment with millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families. Just 29% said that this scenario is not very likely and 13% said not likely at all. And, in a Rasmussen poll, only 11% of respondents felt the country was going in the right direction, compared with 24% in mid-September just prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Many supporters of Senator McCain assert that the campaign's problem is that the senator has failed to "get tough" on Mr. Obama by not putting the Illinois senator's character and outlook sufficiently at issue. In particular, they point to the Senator's relationship with three Chicago men - Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the senator's longtime pastor known for his racially tinged (and sometimes anti-American) sermons; William Ayers, an unrepentant 1960's radical and Weather Underground founder who hosted a coffee for Mr. Obama's state senate candidacy and served with the Mr. Obama on an educational commission; and Tony Rezko, convicted businessman involved in a real estate deal involving Mr. Obama's home.

These connections are legitimate campaign issues. For example, it is hard to understand how Mr. Obama could have spent twenty years in the pews of Reverend Wright's church while the preacher repeatedly expressed his venomous messages. And Mr. Obama surely should have steered clear of Mr. Ayers, who has expressed little or no regret for involvement with a violent group involved in bombing the United States Capitol.

Nevertheless, Mr. McCain should not make Mr. Obama's character the main focus. What the Arizona senator does need to do is articulate far more carefully and effectively his themes for the issue that people care deeply about - the economy. As economist Larry Kudlow notes, Mr. McCain's economic message, which seems primarily to emphasize spending restraint, will likely seem too austere for voters worried about a credit crunch, not to mention keeping a job and a house. He suggests that Mr. McCain propose a flatter income tax structure, a corporate tax reduction, expansion of the money supply by the federal reserve and unlimited FDIC insurance, and pointedly contrast this program to Mr. Obama's program of higher taxes and greater protectionism.

Some of these Mr. Kudlow's proposals may be debatable and a number would have trouble clearing the next Congress, which is likely to be controlled by Democrats. Nevertheless, to win this election, Mr. McCain will have to portray that he understands the difficult times we are facing and that he has some clear and definite ideas on putting the country on the road to prosperity.