The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

As this is written, the Democratic convention has only finished its first day, so any analysis of its success will have to wait for next week. The first day did feature a moving tribute to Senator Edward Kennedy and a quite successful speech by the candidate's wife, Michelle Obama, who managed a bit of a makeover of her image.

One political topic worth discussing, however, is Senator McCain's upcoming choice for vice president, now that Senator Obama has selected Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware as his running mate. It is possible that the choice will be announced before this is published, but the considerations of this selection are still important.

If I were advising either of the candidates on selection of a vice president, I would follow the adage "first do no harm." Over the years, there have been some pretty disastrous picks which killed the presidential candidate's momentum coming out of the convention. Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 got mired in issues about her husband's real estate deals. In 1972, it turned out that Tom Eagleton had had shock therapy and he was replaced on the ticket. On the Republican side, Dan Quayle in 1988 almost instantly established a reputation, fair or not, as a lightweight.

As for Mr. McCain's choice , the name of Senator Joe Lieberman has been floated, but I seriously doubt that he ultimately will receive serious consideration. Despite Mr. Lieberman's national stature and strong support for President Bush's policies in Iraq, Mr. Lieberman's positions on domestic issues, and on abortion, would upset rank and file Republicans and could split the party. Maybe if Mr. McCain were 10 points behind in the polls, he would look to Mr. Lieberman as way to recast his candidacy as a fusion effort, but under the circumstances, this looks to be a risky pick.

A more plausible pick is former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. My best guess is that Mr. McCain will not pick Mr. Romney, but he has considerable merits. The Romney plusses are executive and business experience (something that no one on either ticket has), proven electoral appeal in a Democratic state, success with the Salt Lake Olympics, and (I have to believe) a squeaky clean personal life. At 61, he is pretty much the right age for the job.

But there are some significant downsides for Mr. Romney.

First, he had a great deal of money in the 2008 primaries, plus support of many conservatives (for example, most of the National Review editors), but he just did not run well. My personal perception is that there was something off-putting about his campaign persona and he just didn't seem sincere as a born-again conservative figure, not his posture in Massachusetts.

Second, Mr. Romney's Mormon religion unfortunately and unfairly is an issue for some people.

On balance, the best available choice for McCain appears to be Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, who won reelection in 2006, a tough year. The GOP has an outside shot in Minnesota and Mr. Pawlenty perhaps could put it in Mr. McCain's column. Mr. Pawlenty is 48, a little young (but a year older than Obama) and has executive experience. Obviously, the downside with Mr. Pawlenty is that people outside of Minnesota who aren't political junkies have never heard of him. Also, he needs to be carefully vetted for scandals. But if he's reasonably clean, I believe he would add something to Mr. McCain's ticket.

This election has every prospect of going down to the wire, and vice presidential selections may well be important.