The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

Whoever is inaugurated as president on January 20, 2009 will face a challenging environment around the world, although there is some good news as well.

Of course, the headlines have been dominated in recent days by the Russian incursion into neighboring and democratic Georgia. While the origin of the dispute relates to separatist rebels in South Ossetia, the invasion certainly represents a brazen move by the government of Dmitry Medvedev, successor and protege of Vladimir Putin. At a minimum, Russia appears to be flexing its muscles as a regional power and may well have visions of again becoming a significant world power

Indeed, the Georgia invasion points up the need for a new approach toward Russia. While President Bush emphasized personal diplomacy with Mr. Putin, Mr. Bush's successor will likely pursue a more aggressive course. John McCain has suggested removal of the removal of the Russians from the G-8 group of industrialized nations. Whether or not that is a good idea, some form of new leverage will certainly be required.

Another major issue going forward will be the debate over foreign trade. Both the administrations of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush have basically been supportive of liberalized foreign trade, even at the expense of some American workers and products. Recently, however, there has been opposition expressed to free trade in producing countries and the latest trade negotiations, the Doha round, has collapsed. On the campaign trail, Barack Obama has called for the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), although he seems to have pulled back from this position. Many economists of different ideological stripes are of the belief that globalization of the economy, while certainly producing both winners and losers, is of overall long term benefit to both the United States and the world. The next president will certainly have to weigh in on this controversy.

The Middle East remains another important area of foreign policy concern. Our main ally in the region, Israel, is surrounded by hostile neighbors largely opposed to its existence. A principal player in the region, Iran, seems intent on embarking on a nuclear enrichment program that could well lead to the development of nuclear weapons. Iran is also believed to have bankrolled numerous sectarian fighters in the Iraq war. A military response to Iran would be very difficult and negotiations with the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have been very difficult.

China remains a problematic country, with its huge population, significant military presence and basically authoritarian government. The hope is that recent economic reforms coupled with a strong trading partnership with the United States will ameliorate relations, but the jury is definitely out.

Of course, there are a few relatively positive items on the ledger. One of them, rather ironically, is Iraq, where the security and political stability situation has definitely improved in the last two years, to the point that it is realistic to contemplate substantial withdrawals of United States forces in the next few years. Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama have different ideas on how to accomplish this, but they at least have a reasonably strong foundation to build upon.

Another positive item is that, for all the talk of American isolation, the United States seems to have more friends on the world stage than in previous years, including Nicholas Sarkozy in France, Angela Merkel in Germany, Silvio Berlusconi in Italy (again), Stephen Harper in Canada and (usually) Gordon Brown in Britain.

Still, despite some positive developments, the next president will have his work cut out for him on foreign affairs.