The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

With the 2008 presidential election about 3 1/2 months away, here are some thoughts on the current state of the horse race.

If the election were held this week the likely winner would be the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama. Mr. Obama has been holding small but persistent leads over his presumptive Republican opponent, John McCain, in the two publicly reported daily tracking polls by the Gallup and Rasmussen organizations, as well as in other polls. For example, on the day this is written, Senator Obama is ahead by six points in the Gallup poll and one point in the Rasmussen survey, an average lead of 3 1/2 percent, fairly typical of these polls recently. Mr. Obama's leads may sometimes be within the margin of error, but it unlikely that polls that pretty much show the same narrow lead day after day are erroneous.

Of course, a popular vote lead is not the same as victory in the electoral college, but it is a pretty positive sign. Before the 2000 election, the previous time that a popular vote loser won the presidency was in 1888. And surveys indicate that Mr. Obama is ahead or competitive in a number of generally Republican states, so he likely is scoring well in the electoral college totals as well.

But a lead in July is certainly not the same as a victory in November. In a recent Gallup survey of the last nine competitive elections, the winner in six was actually behind at this time of the cycle. Much is still to happen. As this is written, Mr. Obama is abroad on his highly publicized trip to the Middle East and Europe, which could bump his numbers (for a while at least), assuming there are no gaffes. Then both candidates will choose a running mate, go through the conventions, stump the country and prepare for debates.

The electorate is certainly not happy with the direction of the country (far more respondents say that that the country is on the wrong track than moving in the right direction) and very much inclined to back a Democratic candidate with the economy barely above recession, gas prices very high and the housing market very soft.

Despite this structural advantage, however, Mr. Obama is having a great deal of difficulty closing the deal. He fundamentally has three problems. First, he does not have very much experience, with less than 4 years in the United States Senate, and next to no foreign policy credentials. This has required him to demonstrate his bona fides by showing mastery of policy, including on his current trip.

Second, Mr. Obama can easily be portrayed as too liberal. He has one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate and his long association with his controversial pastor, Jeremiah Wright, makes it difficult to explain away this leftwing outlook. Third, he has had to change his position on numerous issues, undercutting his persona as an agent of change.

Obviously, Mr. McCain has his own set of problems, in addition to bearing the burden of the Bush Administration's unpopularity. Age is one, but the recent relative success in Iraq may be another, since it may lessen the perceived importance of the president's commander in chief role.

But the basic focus of the election continues to be Mr. Obama. It is his election to lose, but he is still a long way from definitively making his case with the American people.