The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

Truth to tell, I was planning to devote this week's column to the Belmont Stakes. Ideally, the piece would have celebrated Big Brown's victory and the first Triple Crown in 30 years and included memories of the three great champions preceding Big Brown - Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. If Big Brown had lost in the stretch, there would still have been a discussion of his gallant effort and how hard it is to win the Triple Crown.

Unfortunately, of course, Big Brown finished a dismal last, pulled up by his jockey apparently unhurt. The discussion of the Belmont has turned sour, focusing on speculative talk about such subjects as whether Big Brown received a bad ride and the effect on a horse of steroid withdrawal, especially on a hot day.

Big Brown's abortive Triple Crown bid seems to epitomize a period where things just don't seem to be going well on a variety of fronts.

Gas prices are now soaring north of $4 a gallon with the price of crude oil hitting $138 a barrel at one point. While the Northeast is a bit insulated from the worst effects of the spike because of the relatively short distances and availability of public transportation, it is still a significant budgetary issue for many families. Of course, the situation is worse in rural areas.

Then on Friday came the news that unemployment had risen to 5.5 percent. Labor markets had been an island of strength in the economic slowdown, but the latest news indicates softness in the jobs sector as well.

Meanwhile, other economic news remains shaky. Housing prices are weak, the stock market erratic. In agriculture, we seem to be seeing the worst of all worlds, with high prices and farmers worried about insufficient harvests. Overall, according to the Gallup Poll, 77 percent of Americans are negative about the economy, 16 percent neutral and just 5 percent positive.

Obviously, there are political winners and losers from this negative trend. Barack Obama, now clearly the presumptive Democratic nominee, gains because people will be more receptive to his message of change and less critical of his lack of experience. As the party holding the White House for eight years, Republicans are hurt, which is a principal reason that John McCain is distancing himself from the Bush Administration. Indeed, the significant progress that has been achieved in Iraq in recent months has been almost completely overshadowed by the economy.

But just as Big Brown may be able to achieve a measure of redemption this summer in the Haskell or Travers Stakes, and perhaps in the Breeders Cup this fall, most likely things will turn around globally. Oil prices are largely driven by speculations and the bubble will surely burst. The downturn, whether or not a recession, will end as investors find new opportunities and start to hire workers again. The housing decline will end as potential buyers gain new confidence about the future and stock prices will likely rise as well.

It is very dark right now, but, as the saying goes, the night is darkest just before the dawn.