By Bob Morgan, Jr.

What will be the Democrats' endgame?

Short of something completely unforeseen, Barack Obama will be the 2008 nominee for president. Some time in June, enough convention superdelegates will likely announce their support of the Illinois senator that, when combined with his majority of pledged elected delegates, Mr. Obama will have a majority of the delegates of the convention, at least without counting delegates from Florida and Michigan. These two states scheduled early primaries and have been penalized by the Democratic National Committee.

Most Democratic bigwigs would doubtless like to see Mrs. Clinton go quietly in early June. Continuing sniping between the former first lady and Mr. Obama will hurt Mr. Obama in his efforts to focus on John McCain, who continues to run strongly in polls despite general weakness of the Republican brand. Party leaders particularly do not desire a divided convention in late August, which would highlight demographic and other rifts between the two Democratic contenders, while distracting voters from Mr. Obama's message. If there is a quiet withdrawal, the party will likely commit itself to help Mrs. Clinton with her substantial campaign debt.

Unfortunately for the Democratic leadership, however, a peaceful resolution may not be particularly consistent with Mrs. Clinton's long term political future. If Mr. Obama is successful in 2016, he will almost certainly run for reelection in 2012. As for 2016, when Mrs. Clinton will be 69 years old on Election Day, Mr. Obama's vice president (whoever that may be) will likely have a claim on the nomination, especially if the Obama ticket were reelected. Even if Mr. Obama goes down in 2008, it is quite questionable whether Mrs. Clinton would do well in the race for the 2012 nomination, having lost her frontrunner status this year.

Accordingly, it is entirely possible that Mrs. Clinton will press on. She will argue that Florida and Michigan should be given their full complement of convention delegates and that she should be entitled to receive the majority of them, based on votes where Mr. Obama did not appear on the ballot.

More substantively, she can contend that she remains the Democratic candidate with the best chance of being elected in the fall, and that the delegates should keep their options open all the way to the convention. There is some support for her argument about electability. For example, the Gallup tracking survey from May 20-24, shows Mrs. Clinton leading Mr. McCain by five points among registered voters, while Mr. Obama trails the Arizona senator by two points. If this trend were to continue and widen, it is (barely) conceivable that delegates would take a second look at their choice.

Mrs. Clinton could also insist on being the nominee for vice president. This would at least put her in a good position for the 2016 nomination if the ticket is successful and might enhance her stature in 2012 if Mr. Obama loses. Mr. Obama may well be unenthusiastic about this choice (it conflicts with his message of change, it might entangle Bill Clinton in his administration), but Mrs. Clinton has some good cards. With upwards of 45% of the pledged delegates at the convention, her supporters presumably could place her in nomination for vice president and force a roll call vote. Even if Mr. Obama's selected candidate won that vote, no sure thing, that would be a problematic start to his general election campaign.

Barack Obama is very much in the driver's seat for the nomination, but it is entirely possible that a rocky road is ahead.