The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

It's still a long time until the 2008 elections, but at least some of the outlines of the contest are starting to come into focus.

On the presidential side of the ledger, we have a strong Democratic frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who has a 20-plus lead in the opinion polls over her nearest challenger, Barack Obama, and who has amassed a large campaign war chest. Short of a major mistake by Mrs. Clinton, it would be hard to imagine her being overtaken in the race for the nomination.

The Republican picture is much more muddied, but Rudolph Giuliani has managed to hang tough in the early going, maintaining a lead in most polls despite views on certain social issues which may be unpalatable to many members of the party's base. The latest entrant into the race, former Senator and Law and Order actor Fred Thompson, has been off to an adequate start, but there is considerable question of whether he has the desire to wage the type of all-out campaign necessary both to overtake Mr. Giuliani for the nomination and to battle Mrs. Clinton hard in the general election. Obviously, though, this race is not over, with the huge February 5 super primary of over 20 states looming very large.

As for the general election, Mrs. Clinton currently has a single digit lead in most national polls over Mr. Giuliani. While no doubt it is better to be ahead than behind, one can question how meaningful these margins are. In the last two elections involving a term-limited incumbent, in 1988 and 2000, the opposition candidates, Michael Dukakis and George W. Bush, opened up substantial leads on their opponents, only in Mr. Dukakis' case to lose and in Mr. Bush's case to be drawn into a photo finish election. Perhaps more comforting to Democrats is their substantial lead in fundraising, which the Republicans will have to work hard overcome.

On the Congressional side, 33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be contested. Democrats have a clear edge in the Senate races, with only 12 seats to defend against 21 for the GOP. Moreover, a number of key Republican senators have announced their retirement (in New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado and Nebraska), making these seats much more competitive or even leaning toward the Democrats. Another group of Republicans such as John Sununu in New Hampshire and Norm Coleman of Minnesota are running in fairly difficult states. The only good hopes for Republican pickups are in Louisiana and South Dakota. The Democrats seem on track for a three or four seat net gain and retention of control.

The GOP's hopes in the 2008 House races are considerably better. While Democrats have done well in fundraising, they have many marginal seats to defend. Over 60 Democratic members represent districts carried by President Bush in 2004 (as opposed to eight Republicans from Kerry districts) and 35 of these Democratic districts were won by Mr. Bush with over 55% of the vote. Moreover, GOP analysts claim they have done very well in candidate recruitment, with many of the party's scandal- ridden or ethically challenged incumbents already defeated in 2006. There seems to be a good possibility of significant Republican pickups, with some chance of the GOP retaking control.

Much can and will happen in the next 12 1/2 months but 2008 does seem to be shaping up as an exciting and competitive political year.