The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

I think I know who will win the 2008 Democratic nomination for President. Hillary Rodham Clinton is a very heavy favorite. Ms. Clinton is admired by much of her party base, is very well financed, has the benefit of her husband's nationwide political contacts and has a plausible case that her experience as First Lady and in the United States Senate is superior to any other Democratic candidate in the race.

On the other hand, I am pretty much clueless as to the likely Republican nominee. The best I can say is that the ultimate Republican nominee will either be former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani or a candidate who can get past Mr. Giuliani.

Mr. Giuliani is his party's frontrunner but he only garners narrow poll pluralities. Certainly the former mayor has a compelling story. In 1993, a rather desperate New York City turned to a Republican mayor in the face of a soaring crime and murder rate, in which over 2000 New Yorkers were killed each year, welfare rolls in excess of 1 million and a sense of hopelessness that the city was "ungovernable."

Under Mr. Giuliani's administration, the city turned around. The murder rate declined by two thirds, the welfare rolls by about half. Mob influence at such places as the South Street Seaport and the Javits Center was largely eliminated. The Times Square area, previously a cesspool, was revitalized as a vibrant city center.

And, of course, Mr. Giuliani became "America's Mayor" on September 11, 2001, an effective and steadfast spokesman for the city in its hour of crisis.

On the other hand, his stands on social issues, particularly abortion, but also gay rights and immigration, infuriate many members of the Republican base. His personal life has been the subject of considerable scrutiny and criticism. His association with disgraced former police commissioner Bernard Kerik has ignited considerable controversy.

But if not Mr. Giuliani, who? Close behind him (and ahead in at least one poll) is an officially undeclared candidate, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson, generally followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain. There are also numerous second tier candidates.

Mr. Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and "Law and Order" television actor, had a reliably conservative voting record in the Senate and is an articulate spokesman for his beliefs. The obvious issue is his lack of executive experience. Mr. Romney, a former businessman, was governor of usually Democratic Massachusetts. He has presented himself well so far in the presidential debates. However, his new-found support for conservative social positions have caused some to question his sincerity. Mr. Romney's Mormon faith has also unfortunately and unfairly stirred controversy. Senator McCain, a national hero initially thought to be the front-runner, has always aroused suspicion among the base for his maverick stands and stumbled this year with his support of the immigration bill.

There are numerous scenarios possible, and forecasting is complicated by the advent of the February 5 mega-primary, which will involve such large states as California, New York, Texas, Florida and Michigan. This huge primary may or may not diminish the importance of the earlier Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, states where Mr. Romney seems to be doing well.

Mr. Giuliani runs well in poll matchups against Ms. Clinton, a factor that may cause some social conservatives to hold their nose and regard him as the party's best hope. On the other hand, feeling runs deep against a thrice-married social liberal and the party may just settle on another candidate.

It's really anyone's guess.