The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

Even 20 months before the election, Hillary Clinton looms large over the 2008 campaign.

The New York Times reports this week that the former first lady has reinstituted a new version of her "listening" campaign that worked so well in her 2000 run for the Senate in New York. As the article describes it, "She is a tea-sipping girlfriend who vows to "deck" anyone who attacks her; a giggly mom who invokes old Girl Scout songs and refuses to apologize for voting for the Iraq War Resolution in 2002. Her aim, of course is to show that she is tough enough to lead Americans in wartime but tender enough to understand their burdens."

Like her or not (and she has many supporters and detractors), Ms. Clinton seems to have moved out to a commanding lead in the race for the Democratic race. To take a representative recent poll, she leads her closest rival for the nomination, the charismatic but very untested Barak Obama among Democrats by 36 to 24 percent in survey sponsored by Time Magazine.

Ironically, however, Ms. Clinton may have even a greater impact on the Republican side of the race.

The party has a well known divide between more traditional "values" social conservatives, whose strong turnout in 2004 was a key to President Bush's reelection and more libertarian elements of the party, who emphasize such issues as smaller government, lower taxes and free trade. And since neither President Bush nor Vice President Cheney will be the Republican nominee next year, the GOP would have been expected to have a vigorous ideological battle, with a strong social conservative pitted against a more liberal or libertarian aspirant and much talk about a "battle for the soul of the party."

However, right now (admittedly very early in the race), Mr. Giuliani is emerging as a clear frontrunner in the race despite positions on such issues as abortion, gay rights and gun control that are clearly problematic to many Republicans. His closest challenger from the right (and a very recent convert to social conservatism at that), Mitt Romney, lags well behind both Mr. Giuliani and hard to define Senator John McCain.

While Mr. Giuliani's performance as "America's mayor" both before and after 9/11 convinces many Republicans that he has the strength to lead, the emergence of Ms. Clinton as the likely Democratic nominee has probably led to a willingness of Republicans, even relatively conservative ones, to rally around Mr. Giuliani. Most Republicans I know greatly fear a second Clinton presidency and many are willing to trim a little bit ideologically to get the strongest possible candidate. And polls showing Mr. Giuliani even or ahead of Ms. Clinton in states like New Jersey and Pennsylvania certainly enhance the former mayor's image as a winner.

Republicans have reason to be worried about Ms. Clinton. In a book published last year entitled Can She Be Stopped? (Crown Forum 2006), conservative columnist and author John Podhoretz asserts that some of the perceived negatives about Ms. Clinton, such as her lack of likeability, may actually prove to be plusses, as she shows that she is a strong enough leader to be president. Moreover, Mr. Podhoretz believes that Ms. Clinton, with appropriate feints to the right like her bill on flag-burning, may be able to dilute the charge that she is an out of touch liberal. And, as he points out, the Clintons have a strong national following and donor base.

Whether she wins the Presidency or not, 2008 may well be the Year of Hillary.