By Bob Morgan, Jr.

A number of new, swirling winds are shaking up both the Democratic and Republican races for the presidential nomination.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains a prohibitive favorite with a double digit lead nationally. However, there are a few indications that the race may not be completely over.

First, Mrs. Clinton has not totally recovered from her stumble on the CNN debate a few weeks ago relating to drivers licenses for illegal aliens, where she seemed to be taking multiple positions. Second, polls now indicate that the Iowa caucus will be very close with Mrs. Clinton's margin shrinking in the New Hampshire primary. Finally, Barack Obama's campaign has been buoyed by the active support of Oprah Winfrey and (perhaps coincidentally) he seems to be picking up support among African-American voters, a key Democratic constituency.

Still, it probably is very unwise to bet against Mrs. Clinton's name recognition and strong organization. The race is still very much hers to lose.

But the real action recently has been on the Republican side. For one thing, there appears to be a new kid on the block - former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who has emerged as the leader in a number of polls in Iowa and has garnered considerable national support.

Mr. Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister who also lost 100 pounds in a crash diet and ran in the New York City Marathon, has captured the interest of many of the more traditional Republican "values" voters with a folksy approach that combines Christian values with a variation of President Bush's "compassionate conserva-tive" message. He has been sharply criticized my many Republicans for his support of taxes in Arkansas, for his relatively liberal stance on immigration (since revised) and for his inexperience and perceived naivete in foreign affairs. Mr. Huckabee could be the "flavor of the month", as Fred Thompson was earlier in the campaign, but he also could retain his hold among social conservative Republicans.

Meanwhile, the national frontrunner among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani, has hit a rough patch in the campaign. First came the indictment of former police commissioner and Giuliani crony, Bernard Kerik and then came revelations about security charges relating to Mr. Giuliani's visits to the Hamptons to see Judy Nathan, who later became his third wife, that were charged to obscure agencies of the city government. This may have all been perfectly legal, but it seemed a bit devious and highlighted issues concerning the former mayor's personal life. Finally, Mr. Giuliani may not have helped himself with an acrimonious exchange with Mitt Romney in a recent debate.

As for Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, having lost his lead in Iowa (at least for now), felt that he had to explain himself concerning his Mormon religion. While he did so effectively, it remains to be seen if one speech can dissipate prejudices.

I still believe that Mr. Giuliani is the most likely Republican nominee. He probably can withstand early bad results in Iowa and New Hampshire (and perhaps in South Carolina and Michigan) until the Florida primary on January 29 and then the Super Tues-day mega-primaries on February 5. He has a great story to tell about the resurgence of New York City and is perceived as a tough leader in difficult times. Nevertheless, there is now much more of a feeling that anything can happen for the Republican nomina-tion, up to ad including the resurgence of another candidate like John McCain or a brokered convention in Minneapolis.