The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

One year from Election Day 2008, the presidential race seems to revolve around one candidate, Hillary Clinton. This is a candidate that voters love to love, or love to hate.

Examples of Mrs. Clinton's polarizing effect are very easy to find. She has unusually high negatives in comparison with other candidates but also high positives. In a representative recent poll, a Bloomberg/ Los Angeles Times survey had her at 48% positive and 44% negative. Or take the latest CNN poll, in which 24% of respondents indicated that they were "extremely likely" to vote for Mrs. Clinton, the highest of any candidate, while 29% of respondents said that they are "extremely unlikely" to vote for her, also the highest.

Mrs. Clinton also has a strong positive effect among women voters and a strong negative one among males. For example, in a recent Rasmussen poll, the good news for the former First Lady is that she wins 18% of Republican women voters, a very substantial crossover. The bad news, however, is that 20% of Democratic men would defect to a Republican rather than vote for her.

Even though Democrats understand and fret about the effect of a polarizing Hillary Clinton campaign, it still seems very unlikely that she will be derailed for the nomination. She has access to the organizational and fundraising structure built by her husband, Bill Clinton, which is unequalled in the race. And she has virtually universal name recognition.

In addition, the principal opposing candidates for the nomination, while attractive figures in some ways, have significant problems of their own. Barack Obama, running a distant second in the polls, has not even finished his first term as United States senator. John Edwards, the failed Democratic vice presidential candidate in 2004, cannot be credited with winning a single additional state for his ticket and did not do well in his debate against Vice President Cheney.

Mrs. Clinton did hit a rough patch last week when her less than definitive answers in a debate on whether she supported Governor Spitzer's plan for driver's licenses evoked a good deal of ridicule about her waffling stands from commentators and political opponents. Indeed, the Edwards campaign put out a pretty devastating advertisement called "The Politics of Parsing", with video clips of Mrs. Clinton's contrary positions. After floating the idea that the attacks were the product of sexism, the Clinton campaign later characterized them as simply typical assaults on a frontrunner, which is pretty accurate. So far, Mrs. Clinton's lead in the nominating polls has largely remaining intact.

In a number of ways, Mrs. Clinton's rather vague positions on a number of issues may help her in the general election. Take Iraq, for example. While far left Democrats may rail at her vote to authorize the war, this stand, when coupled with her heavy criticism of the way the war was waged and a recognition that immediate total withdrawal is impossible, may actually prove to be in sync with the views of many voters, especially true if things continue to improve a bit.

Right now, Mrs. Clinton is running fairly even in the polls against her most likely Republican opponent, Rudy Giuliani. We will see in 12 months if American are ready to give this charismatic, but divisive, woman, the keys to the White House.