The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

As I found out on Saturday when I placed a wager on Scat Daddy in the Kentucky Derby (he finished 18th), handicapping the outcome of future events can prove to be a humbling experience. Nevertheless, here is yet another attempt to analyze the upcoming 2008 presidential race as it stands now.

The obvious problem for Republicans is that their brand name has been diminished in the last few years. For instance, by a significant margin, respondents tell pollsters that they would prefer a Democrat rather than a Republican to be elected President in 2008 and also favor Democratic retention of Congress, even though Congress itself receives low marks.

The biggest obstacle for Republicans right now clearly is the continuing unpopularity of President Bush. Whether or not Mr. Bush is doing the right thing with the "surge" in Iraq (and I tend to believe that he should be given the benefit of the doubt), the war has sapped the Bush Presidency of political strength. Obviously the Administration's hope is that clearly demonstrable progress in the war will regain some of Mr. Bush's supporters, but that will take considerable time.

The problem is not really that the President's approval ratings are trending downward so much is that that they are mired at a low level. Every day the Rasmussen organization takes a three day rolling average poll of Mr. Bush's popularity. For months on end, the daily total of those "strongly approving" and "somewhat approving" the president's performance has been locked in the 37-42% range about 90 percent of the time, with the daily fluctuations almost certainly the product of statistical "noise" rather than meaningful change. Most other polls, which are worded slightly differently than the Rasmussen questions, have the President at around a 35% approval rating. (A new Newsweek poll this week puts Mr. Bush's rating at 28% but that poll appears to oversample Democrats.)

But the Democrats have a pretty big concern of their own. Despite high rankings for the party, most head to head matchups between the party's two leading contenders, Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama, and the two leading Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, produce very close numbers.

Take, for example, the most recent Quinnipiac poll matchups, conducted in late April. In the poll, Mr. Giuliani leads Ms. Clinton by 9 points and is ahead of Mr. Obama by 3 points. Meanwhile, Mr. McCain is ahead of Ms. Clinton by 5 points and is tied with Mr. Obama. (Other polls show different results, sometimes with Democratic leads, but the results are almost always close.)

The problem in Ms. Clinton's case is that she is a much more polarizing figure than any other candidate. In the most recent Gallup poll, her favorable rating was 50% and unfavorable 47%, actually an improvement from her prior ratings, but far inferior to any of her major competition in either party. In Mr. Obama's case, it is likely concern that he may not have the experience to do the job.

Obviously much can happen in the next few months. For example, it remains to be seen how Mr. Giuliani's social stands play with the GOP base and whether he will continue to be the frontrunner. The progress of the war is another crucial variable. But at the moment, both parties confront rather serious obstacles on the road to the White House.