The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

For the first time, it can fairly be said that Democrats are favored to recapture the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections and have close to an even shot at winning the Senate. The big question at this time is what, if anything, the Republicans can do to reverse the tide in the limited time before the election.

The polls are certainly gloomy for the GOP. After a pretty good month of September, things have gone south quickly in the last few weeks for the Republicans with a news background which included selective revelations of the National Intelligence Estimate (which the Bush Administration asserts are distorted) indicating that the Iraq war is harming the war on terrorism, the publication of Bob Woodward's book claiming that the Bush Administration is in denial on Iraq and, perhaps most striking, the Foley page scandal. Republicans are again being drubbed in the generic ballot for Congress, with voters in the last Gallup survey favoring a Democrat for Congress over a Republican by a striking 23 points.

Most likely, the less said by national Republicans about the Foley matter the better. There are obvious talking points here like the lenient way the Democrats treated a Massachusetts Congressman previously involved in similar behavior and the holding back (probably by partisans) of the most scandalous messages until the eve of the election. Still, this is a nasty story involving mistreatment of teenagers that that the GOP has to hope will die down in the next few weeks.

One obvious strategy, which Republicans have already used, is to point out the consequences of the Democratic control in the House, which includes the ascendancy of San Francisco liberal Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House, pro-tax Charles Rangel as chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and seemingly pro-impeachment John Conyers as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.

This may not be very effective, however, since it is too much "inside baseball". Most people are largely unfamiliar with Ms. Pelosi, Mr. Rangel or Mr. Conyers or the consequences of one party controlling Congress, which includes that the majority party controls virtually every committee and its chairperson. With less than four weeks to go before the election, the task of educating voters as to the intricacies of the Congress and causing alarm about the individuals seems impossible.

The Republicans' best hope is getting the debate back to a discussion over the fundamentals of foreign and economic policy. Which party can keep us safe from terror? Which party can extricate us from Iraq without that country becoming a terrorist state? As the stock market rises and budget deficits shrink, which party can keep taxes low and the economy strong? While much of the media will focus on other issues, a personal campaign by key Republicans (depending on the state or district, President Bush, John McCain or Rudy Giuliani) can get the message through. Moreover, the Republicans have the resources to reinforce their message through paid advertisements.

Some hope for the GOP can be seen in the Virginia Senate race, where the election focused for weeks on series of gaffes (or alleged gaffes) by Republican George Allen, most notably calling an opposition staffer of Indian descent a "macaca". Eventually, following a televised appeal by Mr. Allen for a campaign focusing on substantive issues, his standings in the polls have begun to improve.

Much is at stake in this election and the Republicans' best hope is to refocus the voters on the importance of their vote on big picture issues.