The View From Here . . .
By Bob Morgan, Jr.

Here is another periodic report on the upcoming midterm elections on November 7, now just a few weeks away. All of the seats in the House of Representatives, 33 Senate seats, a majority of governorships and numerous state and local offices are at stake.

On the overall national front, there has been a bit of good news for President Bush in recent days, although the magnitude of the improvement should not be overestimated. By a series of high-profile speeches and appearances, Mr. Bush has been able to take charge of the national debate and turn it to terrorism, where he and his party usually have an advantage in national polls. In addition, the price of gasoline has declined somewhat, too $2.66 as a national average (not necessarily reflected in New York), according to the latest Lunberg survey. As a result, Mr. Bush's approval ratings have moved up a bit in most surveys, including the latest rating of 44 percent in the Gallup Poll. Of course, this rating is not nearly as high as President Clinton's ratings at a comparable time in his term, which were in the mid 60's.

It is still difficult to believe that the Democrats are going to pick up the net six Senate seats required to gain control, although they have widened the playing field a bit. In both Virginia and Tennessee, Democratic candidates are rather surprisingly running strong races to win Republican-controlled seats (in the case of the Virginia race aided by a series of miscues by the Republican candidate, George Allen). These are Republican-leaning states, however, and the GOP is probably favored in both states. Democrats are leading in Pennsylvania and have solid chances to pick up Republican seats in Ohio, Missouri, Montana and Rhode Island, but their chances of sweeping all these states seem remote. Republicans have an even shot to win a Democratic seat in New Jersey and some chance in Maryland.

Things are much more problematic, however, for the Republicans in the House, where the Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to gain control. During most of 2006, Democrats have led, usually by double digit leads, in the "generic" ballot, where voters are asked to choose between an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican for the House. However, these polls tend to be of registered voters, or even of adults, rather than likely voters. The last two polls of "likely" voters, by Fox News and Gallup, have had a much closer race. On the other hand, a district by district survey of competitive races conducted in early September (perhaps before the latest Bush bounce) by Majority Watch had Democrats in the lead in around 17 races, enough to secure control. In short, the race for the House is close to a 50-50 proposition.

Whatever the national picture, it cannot be said that the outlook for Republicans is rosy in New York, at least according to the polls. At present, Eliot Spitzer seems far ahead of John Faso and Hillary Clinton is leading John Spencer by a wide margin, although there remains a sizeable anti-Hillary vote. The Republicans' best hope for avoiding a statewide sweep is in the attorney general race, where former Westchester district attorney Jeannine Pirro is hoping to use her prosecutorial experience to propel her to a victory over Andrew Cuomo. At present, however, Mr. Cuomo is leading in the polls.

Quite a bit can happen between now and Election Day, both on the campaign trail and in the news. However, at least for the moment, the outlook is for a pretty suspenseful election night, nationally if not in New York.