The View From Here . . .

Since the deadline for my next column is Election Day, this will be the last effortat looking at the upcoming midterm vote. Next week will discuss something, anything, other than politics.

It seems unquestionable that Democrats will make gains this year. Although the economy is strong, there is deep dissatisfaction about the Iraq war and with the Bush Administration in general. In addition, the Republican controlled Congress has certainly not helped itself by ties of some legislators to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and by the recent Mark Foley scandal. President Bush's approval rating remains low, in the upper 30s in most surveys, a bad case of the six year itch. The "generic" ballot, where voters say whether they plan to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress (without the actual name of the candidate being mentioned), Democrats usually lead by 10-15 percent.

The real question is whether this will be a true "wave" election where the tide will turn strongly in favor of the Democrats and will sweep away very large numbers of embattled incumbents, or whether the Democratic gains will be somewhat more modest. The last Democratic wave election occurred in 1974 in the wake of the Watergate scandal. The Republicans returned the favor in 1994, when they gained control of both Houses, which they have maintained (with the exception of a year and a half period in the Senate) ever since.

If there is a wave, the Democrats will easily gain the 15 seats they need to gain control of the House and likely the six seats to win the Senate. At least one academic study claims that an advantage of 15 points in the generic poll will result in an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats, which would meet most definitions of a wave. Hotline's Charlie Cook, a well known expert on political races, declared on October 30 that "there are no signs this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely."

On the other hand, there are a number of factors favoring Republicans generally that cannot be factored into the generic ballot and may be able to stave off a wave. State legislatures, often controlled by Republicans or divided between the parties, have often drawn districts favoring Republicans or incumbents generally. Nationally, there are relatively few (about 18) House districts currently held by Republicans that were not carried by President Bush in 2004, considerably narrowing the playing field. The Republican get out the vote effort is generally regarded as superior to the Democratic one and the GOP usually has more money for last minute advertising and operations.

My best guess, based on current national and individual race polling and trends, is that while the Senate may be decided in favor of the Republicans (albeit with GOP losses of four or five seats) on the evening of November 7, there will be an extraordinarily high number of very close races in the House and control of the chamber may well not be determined for a few days. The odds favor the Democrats to emerge with a majority of the House by a few seats (although a GOP hold cannot be ruled out) but any Democratic victory will be the product of a hard-fought victory rather than a wave.