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View From Here July 14, 2006  RSS feed

The View From Here . . .

By Bob Morgan, Jr.

While most political analysts have focused on problems facing Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections, the Democrats certainly have a number of issues of their own.

In some ways, of course, the Democrats have the wind at their back in 2006. President Bush's approval ratings, while a little better than earlier in the year, are generally hovering in the high thirties. In most polls, more than twice as many respondents think the United States is going in the wrong rather than right direction. In the "generic" ballot, more poll respondents say they would prefer to vote for a Democratic rather than Republican candidate for Congress.

Still, while Democrats talk about nationalizing the race and turning it into a referendum on President Bush, they are rather badly split on the Iraq war and very worried that Republican attacks on them as weak on national security and willing to "cut and run" will stick.

For example, after Democrats like John Murtha in the House and John Kerry in the Senate made statements calling for a fixed pullout date from Iraq, Republicans immediately put the matter to a vote in Congress, while Democrats, not happy about going on the record, rather tellingly denounced the GOP for gamesmanship. In the Senate, the Kerry resolution only got six Democratic vote, although a more vaguely worded resolution got additional support.

Nowhere, of course, is the Democratic dilemma better illustrated than in the race in Connecticut for the seat currently held by Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman. Mr. Lieberman, of course, was his party's 2000 presidential nominee, and with the exception of his staunch support of the war in Iraq, has been a reliable Democratic vote during his tenure in the Senate.

While there is a nominal Republican in the race, the real action involves a Democratic primary challenge to Mr. Lieberman by wealthy activist Ned Lamont, who is running an antiwar campaign that clearly has put Mr. Lieberman on the defensive. Indeed, the Lieberman campaign announced last week that it was seeking an independent ballot line that would permit the senator to run in the event of a Lamont win in the primary and prominent Democrats are split as to whether they would support Mr. Lieberman if he is not the Democratic nominee.

Even if Mr. Lamont wins the primary (the polls are very hard to gauge), the likely result in November will be a victory by Mr. Lieberman in the general election. But the increasingly bitter battle in Connecticut both exposes Democratic fault lines and diverts Democratic resources.

Democrats have a few other problems. Like the Republicans, Democrats are quite divided on immigration, having to placate both their base of minority voters, many (but not all) of whom may favor liberalization but also labor supporters who may be unenthusiastic about competition from immigrant workers.

Also, while Democrats have, with some justification, assailed the "culture of corruption" of Republicans in Washington, their case was certainly not helped by the colorful saga of Louisiana Democrat William Jefferson, who allegedly put $90,000 of cash received from an FBI informant in his home freezer.

The bottom line here is that the Democrats may have quite a bit going for them in 2006, but they, too, have their concerns.