The View From Here . . .

A few weeks ago, this column attempted to analyze the various United States Senate races around the country in 2006. The conclusion, at least based on current trends, was that the Democrats were likely to win a few net seats, but were unlikely to gain control. This column will look at the prospects for control of the House of Representatives.

Currently the 435-member House consists of 231 Republicans, 202 Democrats, 1 Democrat-leaning independent and 1 vacancy. All seats will be up for election in November.

Democrats certainly dream of gaining control of the House for the first time in 12 years by picking the 15 seats that they would need to elect a speaker. They point to President Bush's low job approval rating, now mired in the mid-30s, a widely held belief that the country is on the wrong track, general dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, and low approval ratings for Congress, as portending large gains for them in November. Indeed, in "generic" Congressional polls, where voters are asked whether they prefer Democrats or Republicans for Congress, Democrats currently lead by about 10 points.

Democrats also point to intensity. Far more people strongly disapprove of the President's performance than strongly approve, and these individuals may be strongly motivated to register their protest at the polls in November. Indeed, some Democrats think this will be their party's answer to 1994, when Republicans seized upon substantial unhappiness with the Clinton Administration and Congress itself to pick up over 50 seats.

However, structural factors weigh against big Democratic gains. A whopping 98.8% of incumbents were retained in 2004, and few seats are considered in play. This heightened rate is no doubt due to a number of factors working in the current officeholders' favor - name recognition, superior campaign funding and gerrymandered districts. Currently, the Cook Political Report lists 35 seats as currently competitive, including 24 seats held by Republican and 11 held by Democrats. Assuming that Democrats can hold on to 8 of their 11 competitive seats, they would have to win 18 of the competitive 24 Republican seats - a pretty tall order.

Moreover, there are a number of obvious differences between now and 1994. One variance is the number of seats located in districts carried by the opposing party's presidential candidate - usually good targets. In 1994, 53 Democratic House members held seats in districts carried by the defeated Republican candidate, George H.W. Bush, in 1992. In rather sharp contrast, only 18 Republicans currently represent districts that were won by John Kerry in 2004. Indeed, President Bush won 255 congressional districts in 2004, considerably more than the number of House Republicans. Another difference is in the number of open seats. For a variety of reasons, including rules that permitted candidates leaving office in 1994 to retain campaign contributions, there were 67 open seats (no incumbent running for reelection) in that year, a postwar record. The current figure this year is about 26, including 9 currently held by Democrats.

This is not to say that the Democrats cannot pull off a victory in the House this year. If, for example, the President's approval rating were to plunge another 5 points, more Republican seats would likely become competitive and the current storm surrounding the Republicans might become a hurricane. Moreover, another scandal involving Congress could trigger a general "throw them out" fervor. But the best guess right now is that the Republicans will lose some seats (maybe 7-10) in the House, but will hold on to control.