Results from an enrollment projection and demographic study reveal that the number of students who will attend the Garden City School District in future years is "significantly higher than what the district is serving now," according to analyst Dr. Paul M. Seversky.

Dr. Seversky, a consultant for the New York State School Boards Association AdvisorySolutions, presented his findings at Monday evening's Garden City Board of Education work session. This data is part of the first phase of his study; Dr. Seversky will now take the data and perform a capacity study of all buildings using New York State Education Department guidelines. After he determines how many children each building can accommodate, he will compare the totals to enrollment projections.

The current enrollment is 4,240. Projected enrollment increases to a total of 4,625 in 2010-11, 4,833 in 2013-14, and 4,972 in 2015-16.

School Board President Kenneth Monaghan said that every building in the district will eventually need more space, but noted that the Board is committed to first evaluating all current space available before making any decisions.

Dr. Seversky studied several variables that may affect enrollment projections, including Census data, which provides insights into how any new population, housing or employment could possibly affect enrollment; live births; dropout and non-completion rates, which is not an issue since the district's rate is zero; the housing market, including potential residential development; employment market; and private and home school enrollments.

In regard to areas within the Village where new development is possible, Garden City Superintendent of Buildings Michael Filippon is cited in the study naming four potential residential development areas: the 25-acre site where the Nassau County Department of Social Services building currently sits into a residential townhouse complex; the Cathedral of the Incarnation property into assisted living units; the property at 550 Stewart Avenue; and redevelopment of a portion of the Garden City Hotel into residential units.

On April 20, the Garden City Board of Trustees voted 5-3 against Local Law 1-2006, which keeps the zoning at 550 Stewart Avenue commercial for now and would have permitted assisted living anywhere in the village currently zoned for multi-family housing. The law is being reformulated and a public hearing is scheduled for May 18.

Dr. Seversky does not expect these new developments to generate many schoolchildren. However, School Board trustee Laurence Quinn warned that developers usually provide lower schoolchildren projections to appease residents concerned with potential burdens on the school system.

The analyst does predict that 25 percent, or 80, new units will be purchased by empty-nesters who currently live in single family residences in the Village. The study assumes that these 80 residents will sell their homes to people who have children under 18 years old with an average of 3.3 people per household. Assuming the sales of the 80 homes takes place over 36 months, the study predicts that the district can expect 78 students.

The study is costing the district $23,500, paid as follows: 30 percent at time of contract authorization; 20 percent at a point of the study to be mutually determined; 20 percent at a second point of the study to be mutually determined; and the 30 percent remainder at time of completion.

Monaghan asked that all comments and questions regarding the study be forwarded to John Powell at the Business Office located in the Administration Building. The phone number is 478-1040.