In about six months, the voters will go to the polls in the 2006 midterm elections. This column will focus on the races for the United States Senate, where 33 seats, approximately one-third of the total, will be up for election. The Senate is currently controlled by the Republicans, 55-44, with one Democratic-leaning incumbent. To win back the Senate, the Democrats will have to pick up a net gain of six seats.

Democrats see the possibility of a huge tidal wave of votes in their favor as a result of President Bush's relatively low poll standings, the unpopularity of the Iraq war, high energy prices, real and alleged scandals and the general malaise which seems to surround a sixth year president. And indeed, historically there have been some large opposition gains in off year elections occurring in the sixth years of presidencies, including significant setbacks for the Reagan Administration in 1986, the Eisenhower Administration in 1958 and even the Franklin Roosevelt Administration in 1938.

Still, while one can envision a scenario for the Democrats gaining the Senate, this is probably not the way to bet. For one thing, the numbers do not favor a large change. Of the 33 Senate seats that will be up for election, 18 (including the lone independent) are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans.

Turning to specific races, the Democrats do have a few decent pickup opportunities. Their best chance is no doubt in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Rick Santorum, who may be a bit too conservative for his state, is facing a strong challenge from Bob Casey, Jr., son of a popular governor. Interestingly, both Mr. Santorum and Mr. Casey are both pro-life. Mr. Casey currently leads in most polls by about 10 points, although the gap has been closing slightly.

The two next best Democratic opportunities are probably in Rhode Island and Ohio. Lincoln Chaffee, the Rhode Island incumbent, is easily the most liberal Republican in the Senate. He will face a strong primary challenge from Stephen Laffey, the more conservative mayor of Cranston and the primary winner will face a tough race in this heavily Democratic state from former state attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse. In Ohio, where the Republican governor, Bob Taft, is deeply unpopular, incumbent Mike DeWine will likely face a very competitive challenge from Congressman Sherrod Brown.

Two other races where the Democrats have a good shot are Montana, a normally Republican state, where the incumbent Senator, Conrad Burns, seems to have been embroiled with disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and is considered somewhat vulnerable, and Missouri. In Missouri, incumbent Jim Talent is facing a strong challenge from state auditor Claire McCaskill, a well-known figure who ran for governor in 2004.

After that, however, the pickings get pretty slim for the Democrats, with only outside shots in Tennessee, an open seat in a Republican state and Arizona, where incumbent John Kyl seems to be running well enough to win.

Republicans have some fair to good opportunities for pickups of their own. Their best shot is probably Minnesota, an open seat, where Republican Mark Kennedy is basically even in the polls with Democrat Amy Klobuchar. The other two decent GOP possibilities, albeit in Democratic leaning states, are in New Jersey, where Tom Kean is in a tight race with incumbent Bob Menendez and in Maryland where Michael Steele, a rising African American star for the Republicans, is waging a competitive race for an open seat.

In summary, the Democrats will likely hold a few more seats in the new Senate, but gaining control is very much a longshot.