The View From Here . . .

The 2006 elections do not shape up too badly for Republicans nationally, with most observers expecting the GOP to hold on to their majorities in the House and Senate, even if they lose a few seats. But the picture in the Empire State is anything but bright for Republicans, with a fairly decent prospect of a Democratic sweep.

Maybe the Republicans will come up with a gubernatorial candidate who has the potential to give the likely Democratic candidate, Eliot Spitzer, a tough race, but at the moment they do not have one. While former Massachusetts governor William Weld has received considerable media attention and party endorsements in his run for governor here, there is no evidence yet that he has caught on with the voters at large. Polls indicate him trailing Mr. Spitzer by margins of 40% and there are some lingering issues relating to his investment in a Kentucky college and his desire not to complete his second term in Massachusetts.

The GOP alternatives, to Mr. Weld, however, are equally problematic. Maverick Tom Golisano, while enjoying considerable support upstate, apparently has decided against running. The other candidates -- John Faso, Randy Daniels and Pat Manning - may not have enough statewide name recognition to be viable.

Perhaps the best hope for the Republicans would be a bruising primary battle involving Mr. Spitzer and Tom Suozzi, who has very legitimate credentials as a reformer. However, it very much remains to be seen if Mr. Suozzi's statewide efforts against the far better known and better funded Mr. Spitzer will get off the ground.

Things are not much better for the Republicans in the potential race to oust Hillary Clinton from the Senate. Maybe the best news so far is that they may not have lost much ground from the departure of Jeanne Pirro and the refusal of Edward Cox to reenter the contest. In the most recent poll, former Yonkers mayor John Spencer, basically an unknown to both voters, garners 31% of the vote in comparison with Mrs. Clinton's 58%, thus indicating at least some possibility of running a competitive race with the former First Lady and perhaps drawing a fair amount of anti-Clinton money from around the country. Still, Mrs. Clinton does not appear to be in any type of serious trouble in her race.

Downballot, things are not much better for the Republicans. Alan Hevesi seems to be a shoo-in for reelection as comptroller. The GOP has some shot for attorney general, since Jeannine Pirro, despite her husband's legal troubles, has finally found the right race. On the other hand, she will face a substantial challenge from either of the two leading Democratic candidates, Andrew Cuomo or Mark Green. Of course, the Republicans' greatest fear would be the loss of the State Senate, which they have held for forty years and which represents a seat at the table for the party even during Democratic administrations.

Why the decline in the Republican fortunes? New York has generally become a deep blue state in recent presidential elections and the Democratic registration edge has grown to 5 to 3. Plus, there is likely fatigue with the Pataki administration, which has been in office since early 1995 and seemingly intractable problems with economy upstate, traditionally the Republican stronghold. In any event, the New York GOP will have to come up with some fresh ideas (and maybe fresh candidates) quickly if it is going to stave off a bad defeat in November.