The View From Here . . .

Last week's column dealt with the rise of the Angry Left and the potential damage a strident ideological movement could inflict upon the Democratic party, already under suspicion by many voters for being too insensitive to national security issues and too socially liberal.

But the Republicans face challenges of their own, as a look at the potential lineup of contenders for the 2008 presidential nomination makes quite clear.

Right now, the two GOP candidates leading 2008 preference polls are Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain and each does well against Hillary Clinton in head to head matchups.

The problem, however, is that the nomination of either Senator McCain or Mr. Giuliani may well be very controversial among the rank and file conservative Republicans who form a significant part of the party's base. Mr. McCain, while supportive of the President on the Iraq war, is viewed by many as an unpredictable maverick, as evidenced by his sponsorship of the campaign finance legislation and even last week's trip to Alaska with Hillary Clinton and others to promote global warming issues. Mr. Giuliani, although nationally acclaimed for his leadership after 9/11, and for generally cleaning up New York City, has taken socially liberal position on such issues as abortion and gay marriage that are unpalatable to many conservatives. In addition, his tangled personal life may not be well received by some voters.

Maintaining the support of the conservative base is quite important to the success of the Republicans. It is probably fair to say that President Bush owes his reelection to the efforts of the base in registering and turning out supporters in an election with sharply increased electoral participation. A lack of interest by the base in the 2008 election could doom the GOP candidate.

On the other hand, going beyond Mr. McCain or Mr. Giuliani has a number of problems for the Republicans. The most prominent alternative (other than Vice President Cheney, who has not indicated any interest in the race or Jeb Bush, who has an obvious Bush family overload problem) is probably Condeleeza Rice. While she has been an able Secretary of State and defender of the administration, and might help Republicans broaden their demographic appeal, it is also true that she has never run for elective office and her views on many key subjects are pretty much unknown. After that the likely field -- Bill Frist, Mitt Romney, George Allen, Sam Brownback, even George Pataki -- is pretty much a cipher to voters outside of their home states who do not follow politics closely. It is not at all clear how these candidates would stack up against Hillary Clinton or another leading Democrat.

Maybe Mr. McCain or Mr. Giuliani can reach out successfully to traditional Republicans, who in the end may want a winner above all else. For what it is worth, I spoke during the 2004 GOP convention with a number of delegates from a pretty conservative Midwest state and they were surprisingly favorable to Mr. Giuliani. Maybe Ms. Rice will connect with the voters or one of the lesser known Republican candidates will catch fire. Maybe (and this is a longshot), Mr. Cheney will resign as vice president and President Bush will appoint a successor, who will then go on to be the likely presidential nominee. But at least from three years out, the Republicans have been dealt a fairly difficult hand as they attempt to hold the presidency in 2008.