The View From Here . . .

The 2008 presidential election is obviously a long, long way off, but one possible candidate definitely draws the most attention -- our very own junior senator, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Unlike the situation with the potential Republican field, which is very fragmented at this time, Ms. Clinton has a clear lead for the nomination among Democrats. In the most recent Gallup poll for example, Ms. Clinton had 40 percent support, compared with 25 percent for her closest pursuer, 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry. Even Ms. Clinton's avowed opponents see her in a strong position for the nomination. In a survey conducted at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, more than 60 percent of the attendees polled thought that Ms. Clinton would be the 2008 nominee.

Ms. Clinton's standing at the top of the polls among Democrats comes despite considerable political and personal baggage - her failed healthcare plan in 1993, purported association with some of the scandals of the Clinton Administration, strong enmity among a segment of the voters and a difficult marriage. But, as she has shown from the time she entered political life in her own right, this is a woman of very considerable political skill.

Ms. Clinton's 2000 campaign for the United States Senate was very well orchestrated. Although she had the advantage of almost universal name recognition, she entered the race with a number of substantial disadvantages as well. Beyond having to explain the general ethical haze surrounding the Clinton Administration, she was also vulnerable to charges that she was a carpetbagger from Arkansas with little knowledge of New York's problems.

Ms. Clinton responded by her very successful "listening tour", which began in upstate counties. Although the tour, like virtually all political events, was choreographed, she did manage to interact with ordinary people and gain a great deal of favorable publicity. The upstate venue worked very well, since these were locales that were often economically depressed and probably appreciated the attention of a person of Ms. Clinton's national stature. Moreover, Ms. Clinton's out of state background probably did not seem all that alien in rural counties, which often see themselves as ignored in comparison with New York City and its suburbs. On election night in 2000, Ms. Clinton did remarkably well upstate, despite the area's usual Republican leanings, and that showing led to a relatively easy statewide victory.

As senator, Ms. Clinton has maintained a relatively low profile, avoiding most controversy and working hard. She has enjoyed a steady improvement with her New York constituents, with an approval rating of 69 percent in a recent survey. She also has an edge against both Rudolph Giuliani and George Pataki in hypothetical reelection matchups in 2006.

Most recently, Ms. Clinton has sought to moderate her polarizing national image. She has expressed a desire to reach common ground with opponents of abortion and in a recent trip to Iraq with Senator John McCain, she made it clear that she opposes setting a specific deadline for the withdrawal from Iraq, while stating her belief that the Iraq insurgency is failing.

Obviously, much can happen in the next three years. But by all appearances Hillary Clinton will be a formidable candidate for president. People who underestimate her do so at their peril.