As this is written, the first presidential debate is now history, but the already heated campaign has actually increased in intensity.

John Kerry needed a good performance in the debate and he basically delivered. On the defensive since the Republican convention for an allegedly weak and vacillating approach to foreign policy, Mr. Kerry was generally polished, coherent and most of all, reassuring. He forcefully attacked what he termed Bush Administration mistakes in Iraq, while calling for increased cooperation with allies. He still left many observers wondering exactly what his plans were in Iraq, but he was very articulate and at least seemed to have the aura of a confident and competent leader. On the negative side, Mr. Kerry he surely left an opening for opponents by calling for a "global test" before taking military action.

On the other hand, President Bush, who seemed somewhat tired and perhaps irritated at having to be at the debate, did score points concerning Mr. Kerry's frequent inconsistencies as well as the effect of the senator's criticism of the Iraq war on potential allies as well as on troops in the field. Very surprisingly, however, Mr. Bush never attacked Mr. Kerry's greatest vulnerability -- a twenty year voting record in the Senate that can certainly be portrayed as negative on national defense issues.

Much obviously can happen in the upcoming debates, but there probably is reason for some optimism for both sides. As of today, a majority, but not all, available national polls taken after the debate indicate that Mr. Bush is still hanging on to some lead, with the surveys continuing to show Mr. Bush as the stronger leader and better on the leading issue of the day, terrorism. Mr. Bush also maintains leads in postdebate state polls in key battleground states, where the president is running somewhat ahead of his performance in the dead heat election of 2000. For example, a Florida survey has Mr. Bush in the lead by five points. Mr. Bush's performance in upcoming debates will likely improve and Mr. Kerry will still be forced to answer many difficult questions about his record and stances on issues. In addition, Mr. Kerry will have to cope with somewhat higher expectations in future confrontations with the president.

Conversely, Mr. Kerry's followers have reason to be happy themselves. The senator, after nearly being eliminated from consideration by many swing voters, is very much back in the race, with a greatly energized base. The longer Mr. Kerry can keep on a relatively even footing with Mr. Bush, the longer he seems plausible as an alternative to the incumbent, the better his chances of being elected.

The best guess here is that Mr. Bush is still the most likely winner on November 2. But he is in a tough battle with a capable opponent and there are unusual uncertainties this year like vastly increased numbers of voter registrations. To avoid an upset, the president and his team will very much have to step up their debate and campaign effort in the days to come.