The View From Here . . .

The Republican convention is now history. For all of the apprehension about the event, it pretty much took place as scheduled, with virtually no significant disruptions. Many insults were hurled at the delegates and GOP visitors, but there was thankfully little violence, a tribute both to the fine work of the New York police as well as the common sense of some of the protestors. And, thankfully, the feared terrorist attack did not occur.

I had the opportunity to see the last three sessions live at Madison Square Garden. In many ways, of course, the convention hall is a less than ideal venue to evaluate the proceedings since the highly partisan crowd will react favorably to almost anything that takes place on the floor. Nevertheless, it would be an understatement to say that the Republican Garden crowd was energized and very confident of victory in November.

More importantly, the impression that the convention was a success is validated by polls that have now rather clearly swung in Mr. Bush’s direction, a break from the deadlocked race that we have seen all year. While some of the polls seem to overinflate Mr. Bush’s margin by oversampling Republicans, the Gallup Poll puts the President up by seven points among likely voters,

Although the race may tighten up again, Mr. Kerry left himself open to the type of onslaught unleashed at Madison Square Garden. At the Democratic convention in Boston, Mr. Kerry, who began his acceptance speech with a military salute, emphasized his Vietnam service, but made almost no mention of his nineteen year tenure as one of America’s most liberal senators with a consistent record of opposing military actions and weapon systems. (Not surprisingly, he also did not discuss his role after his Vietnam service ended as one of the nation’s leading war protestors.) It was thus not surprising that GOP convention speakers, and in particular Senator Kerry’s Democratic colleague from Georgia, Zell Miller, were able to define his record on Capitol Hill, slamming the Massachusetts senator as unfit to be commander in chief.

Senator Kerry’s candidacy is certainly not dead, and Republicans should not be complacent. Obviously, major news events in the next two months can have an important effect on the convention and there are likely three debates ahead between Mr. Kerry and President Bush, which in themselves have the possibility of refocusing the campaign. For his part in the near future, Mr. Kerry should pretty much stop discussing Vietnam and concentrate on the challenges ahead, particularly on the domestic front, where Democrats have a number of popular issues like health care. On Iraq, it will help Mr. Kerry if he settles on a single position and articulates it consistently and clearly. But I think it is fair to say that right now the election is Mr. Bush’s to lose.

Finally, on a much less partisan note, here’s a wish for the speedy and complete recovery of former President Clinton. Mr. Clinton, perhaps the most effective politician of my lifetime, is a man of enormous vitality who still has much to give the American people.